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| Author: | Hilary, G. Hsu, C. |
| Title: | Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts |
| Journal: | Journal of Accounting & Economics
2011 : APR, VOL. 51:3, p. 300-313 |
| Index terms: | managers management earnings forecasting |
| Freeterms: | credibility overconfidence |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether attribution bias leads managers with experienced short-term forecasting success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings. Furthermore, the effect of this cognitive bias on the managerial credibility is also examined. Consistent with the existence of dynamic overconfidence, managers having predicted earnings accurately in the previous four quarters are less accurate in their subsequent earnings predictions. These managers also show greater divergence from the analyst consensus, being more precise. |
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