| Author: | Jiao, Changfeng Bai, Renpu |
| Title: | Forecast of fluctuation of grain supply in China (original in Chinese) |
| Journal: | Forecasting (c)
1997 : 3, p.21-23 |
| Index terms: | PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY SUPPLY ECONOMIC FORECASTING CHINA |
| Language: | chi |
| Abstract: | Since the founding of China, the total output of grain in China has fluctuated within growth, which is expressed as the violent fluctuation of the growth rate of total output, calculated according to the formula: this year's output-last year's output / total output x 100. It has brought great difficulties to the government in its short term macro regulation and control. Making a short term forecast of the above growth rate has more realistic significance due to the insufficient data and low accuracy of long-term forecast. The results of calculation show that the forecast method of Markov Chain will produce higher accuracy if it is used in China's forecast and has stronger guidance to the government when it formulates the next year's macro control policy. It is estimated that the growth rate of grain supply in China in 1997 will be less than zero. |
SCIMA