| Author: | Vany, A. de Walls, W. D. |
| Title: | Uncertainty in the movie industry: Does star power reduce the terror of the box office? |
| Journal: | Journal of Cultural Economics
1999 : NOV, VOL. 23:4, p. 285-318 |
| Index terms: | FILM INDUSTRY ECONOMICS UNCERTAINTY PARETO LAW ART MARKET CULTURE MARKETING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how risky movie business is, and is there any strategies to reduce that risk, using a sample of 2000 motion pictures. Box office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinitive variance. There is no typical movie because box office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average: Revenues diverge over all scales. The studio model of risk management lacks a foundation in theory of evidence and revenue forecasts have zero precision. The audience makes a movie a hit and "star power" of marketing cannot alter that. |
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