| Author: | Amara, R. |
| Title: | What have we learned about forecasting and planning. |
| Journal: | Futures
1988 : AUG, VOL. 20:4, p. 385-401 |
| Index terms: | ECONOMIC FORECASTING PLANNING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Some hits and misses achieved by the Institute for the Future are presented and the experience from these forecasts is used to distil some lessons learned. They are summarized as do's and don'ts of forecasting and planning. Among the most useful forecasting rules of thumb or guidelines, the following are noteworthy: focusing attention, bracketing forecasts, leaning against the wind, hedging with possible surprises, and expecting discontinuities to cope with inherently complex environments. The forecaster must not look for silver bullets but rather identify basic environmental drivers shaping forecasts and translate forecasts into business issues. |
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