| Author: | Price, D. H. R. Sharp, J. A. |
| Title: | The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : OCT, VOL. 7:4, p. 245-258 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING SIMULATION |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in the method of estimating the model parameters, in the period between re-estimations, in the growth curve fitted and in the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The parameter review period was found to be dependent on estimation models. Changes in re-estimation period explained more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal could improve performance. |
SCIMA