Author: | Fama, E. F. French, K. R. |
Title: | Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds |
Journal: | Journal of Financial Economics
1989 : NOV, VOL. 25:1, p. 23-49 |
Index terms: | RETURN ON INVESTMENT BONDS STOCK MARKETS BUSINESS CYCLES |
Language: | eng |
Abstract: | Expected returns on common stock and long-term bonds contain a term or maturity premium that has a clear business-cycle pattern. Expected returns also contain a risk premium that is related to longer-term aspects of business conditions. The variation through time in this premium is stronger for low-grade bonds than for high-grade bonds and stronger for stocks than for bonds. The general message is that expected returns are lower when economic conditions are strong and higher when conditions are weak. |
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