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| Author: | Kilian, L. |
| Title: | A comparison of the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the G7 countries |
| Journal: | Journal of the European Economic Association
2008 : MAR, VOL. 6:1, p. 78-121 |
| Index terms: | oil industry supply growth inflation |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the G7 countries. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth. This reduction is concentrated in the second year after the shock. Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation peaks after three to four quarters. A fall in the real wage, higher short-term interest rates and a depreciating currency with respect to the dollar are typical responses to oil supply shocks. There is strong evidence that the responses to exogenous oil supply disruptions differ across G7 countries. |
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