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| Author: | Sung, M.-C. Johnson, J.E.V. Dror, I.E. |
| Title: | Complexity as a guide to understanding decision bias: a contribution to the favorite-longshot bias debate |
| Journal: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2009 : JUL, VOL. 22:3, p. 318-337 |
| Index terms: | complexity GAMBLING INDUSTRY probability |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The origins of a widespread decision bias in betting markets, the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) is investigated, especially whether it is caused by cognitive errors on the part of bettors or by the pricing policies of bookmakers. The results suggest that neither bettors' nor bookmakers' cognitive errors are the main cause of the bias. It is showed that bettors preferences for risk and the deliberate pricing policies of bookmakers play key roles in influencing bias in markets where bookmakers and pari-mutuel operators coexist. |
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