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Author:Cortazar, G.
Schwartz, E. S.
Casassus, J.
Title:Optimal exploration investments under price and geological-technical uncertainty: a real options model
Journal:R. and D. Management
2001 : VOL. 31:2, p. 181-190
Index terms:INVESTMENT
GEOLOGY
UNCERTAINTY
OPTIONS
Language:eng
Abstract:This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological- technical uncertainty. After a successful several-stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological-technical uncertainty. Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. The authors' model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological-technical uncertainty into a one-factor model.
SCIMA record nr: 228314
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