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Author: | Berry, B. J. L. Kim, H. Baker, E. S. |
Title: | Low-frequency waves of inflation and economic growth: Digital spectral analysis |
Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2001 : SEP, VOL. 68:1, p. 63-73 |
Index terms: | INFLATION ECONOMIC GROWTH SPECTRAL ANALYSIS |
Language: | eng |
Abstract: | Modern digital spectral analysis confirms that very noisy inflation and economic growth series share 9- and 18- year business and building cycle signals, but that inflation alone displays the additional ~28- and ~ 56-year rhythms of the long wave. The growth cycle that accounts for the greatest variance is one of ~ 6 years, probably associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations. Discussion of these results leads to clarification of major sources of confusion in the longwave literature, and to confirmation of the hypothesis that mode-locked endogenous rhythms may have their timing controlled by an exogenous pacemaker that links inflation and growth. |
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