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| Author: | Marquez, J. Workman, L. |
| Title: | Modeling the IMF's statistical discrepancy in the global current account |
| Journal: | IMF Staff papers
2001 : VOL. 48:3, p. 499-521 |
| Index terms: | Current account Currency markets Econometric models Statistical methods |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in impelemting this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and generating the aggregate discrepancy's conditional expectation. The second step is to compare this model-based forecast with the discrepancy embodied in countries' current-account forecasts |
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