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Author: | Corstjens, M. Demeire, E. Horowitz, I. |
Title: | New-product success in the pharmaceutical industry: how many bites at the cherry? |
Journal: | Economics of innovation and new technology
2005 : JUN, VOL. 14:4, p. 319-331 |
Index terms: | Diffusion New products Pharmaceutical industry Product life cycle |
Language: | eng |
Abstract: | Quarterly data for 56 new ethical-drug products launched between 1989 and 1996 is used to estimate the coefficients of a regression equation that has cumulative future sales beyond the forecast period as its independent variable and third-quarter sales, post-launch product improvements and promotional activities, pre-launch product quality and speed to market, and market growth as the independent variables. The future success of a product is found to be detectable as early as the third quarter after launch, and that while post-launch promotional activities can contribute to that success, if the product has not shown signs of life by the third quarter it is unlikely to do so afterwards. |
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