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| Author: | Liley J. Rakow T. |
| Title: | Probability estimation in poker: A qualified success for unaided judgment |
| Journal: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2010 : AUG, VOL 23:5, p. 496-526 |
| Index terms: | probability |
| Freeterms: | probability judgment heuristics simulation heuristic anchors anchoring and adjustment calibration support theory expertise |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Poker players make strategic decisions on the basis of defective information, which are informed by their assessment of the probability they will hold the best set of cards among all players at the conclusion of the hand. Exact mental calculations of this probability are impossibleĀtherefore, players must use judgment to estimate their chances. Seemingly, players show somewhat insufficient regard for the cards that other players could be holding and the potential for opponents to acquire a strong hand. The results point that even when judgment heuristics are used to good effect in a complex probability estimation task, predictable errors can still be observed at the margins of performance. |
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