search query: @author Davidsen, P. / total: 1
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| Author: | Sterman, J. D. Richardson, G. P. Davidsen, P. |
| Title: | Modeling the estimation of petroleum resources in the United States. |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1988 : MAY, VOL. 33:3, p. 219-249 |
| Index terms: | NATURAL RESOURCES PETROLEUM INDUSTRY USA SIMULATION MODELS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The sets of data are generated by a detailed simulation model of the petroleum lifecycle in the United States. The lifecycle and geologic analogy model are chosen to be investigated. First, the estimation methods are formalized. Second, the resulting protocols are applied to synthetic data generated by the model, and a dynamic path of estimates is generated. The evolution of resource estimates over time is then compared to the resource base assumed in the model, and the accuracy of the estimation protocols is evaluated. Analysis of the model pinpoints the sources of error and suggests way to improve resource estimation strategies. |
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