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| Author: | Chow, T. C. Oliver, R. M. Vignaux, G. A. |
| Title: | A Bayesian escalation model to predict nuclear accidents and risk. |
| Journal: | Operations Research
1990 : MAR-APR, VOL. 38:2, p. 265-277 |
| Index terms: | NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY ACCIDENTS FORECASTING RISK ANALYSIS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Models are designed for predicting the chance of the most severe nuclear accidents, such as partial and complete core-melts leading to major releases of radioactivity. Extensive engineering knowledge forms part of the prior information for failure rates that is updated by statistical evidence gathered during operation. Predictive distributions for time to time to core melt are calculated from the model. These ideas are compared with others in the literature. A two-level binomial random escalation model is illustrated using worldwide data on complete and partial core melts. |
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