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| Author: | Garcia-Ferrer, A. Del Hoyo, J. |
| Title: | Analysis and prediction of the population in Spain: 1910-2000 |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1991 : JUL, VOL. 10:4, p. 347-369 |
| Index terms: | DEMOGRAPHY SPAIN POPULATION SOCIAL FORECASTING PUBLIC POLICY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Important interactions occur between demographic and socio-economic factors when trying to reach population forecasts that may be more efficient than those obtained by mere extrapolations. Furthermore, population predictions have frequently failed to give proper guidance on the inherent degree of uncertainty, and, consequently, demographic forecasts have quickly become obsolete. In order to be able to implement this approach to Spain, first the population series by age and sex groups has been constructed from 1910 to 1980. Then, population forecasts were obtained using alternative modeling strategies. Potential problems that new demographic situation has for future public policy are also commented. |
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