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| Author: | Kontorovich, V. |
| Title: | Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse |
| Journal: | Europe-Asia Studies
2001 : JUL, VOL. 53:5, p. 675-696 |
| Index terms: | ECONOMISTS GROWTH ECONOMIC FORECASTING SOCIALIST ECONOMICS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The subjects of this paper are economic conditions, economic forecasts and business cycles in Soviet Union. The paper presents documents and analyzes the failure of economists to foresee the virtual end of economic growth in the Soviet Union from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The author also pays attention to the factors behind the persistent overprediction of economic growth rates in the Soviet Union and to the impact of the forecasters' behavior as a group, the methods they use and the information at their disposal. In conclusion the author states that western forecasters overestimated the economic growth in the USSR in the last 15 years of its existence. |
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