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| Author: | Estrella, A. Mishkin, F. S. |
| Title: | The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank |
| Journal: | European Economic Review
1997 : JUL, VOL. 41:7, p. 1375-1401 |
| Index terms: | MONETARY POLICY TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES INFLATION FORECASTING EUROPE USA |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in Europe and also in the United States. The results show monetary policy to be an important determinant of the term structure spread, but unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both inflation and real activity. The yield curve is thus an accurate and simple measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide monetary policy of Europe. |
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