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| Author: | Russo, J. E. Schoemaker, P. H. |
| Title: | Managing overconfidence. |
| Journal: | Sloan Management Review
1992 : WINTER, VOL. 33:2, p. 7-17 |
| Index terms: | ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING FORECASTING GROUP DECISION MAKING IVORY COAST |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Good decision making requires more than knowledge of facts, concepts, and relationships. It also requires metaknowledge - an understanding of the limits of our knowledge. Unfortunately, most managers have a deeply routed overconfidence in their beliefs and judgements. Because metaknowledge is not recognized or rewarded in practice, nor instilled during formal education, overconfidence has remained a hidden flaw in managerial decision making. The costs, causes, and remedies for overconfidence are examined. It is also acknowledged that, although overconfidence distorts decision making, it can serve a purpose during decision implementation. As a special case, the group judgement is analyzed, seeking how to make group judgements better. |
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