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| Author: | Vanek, F. M. |
| Title: | Growth of exports from developing countries: implications for freight trends and ecological impact |
| Journal: | Futures
2001 : JUN, VOL. 33:5, p. 393-406 |
| Index terms: | GROWTH EXPORTS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ECOLOGY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper gives a preliminary analysis of the possibility for future growth of exports over the next several decades, in two parts. First, an estimate of the range of potential growth in total export tonne-km and associated energy use is given. Second, production and export of apparel from developing countries is modelled to illustrate the effect of growth in international freight from the perspective of product life-cycle analysis. At the upper end of the estimated growth range, substantial increases in energy use and carbon emissions will merit specific policies to counteract the full participation of industrializing countries in the world trading system, and these are discussed. The paper also identifies areas where data gathering should be improved. |
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