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Author:Berry, B. J. L.
Kim, H.
Baker, E. S.
Title:Low-frequency waves of inflation and economic growth: Digital spectral analysis
Journal:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2001 : SEP, VOL. 68:1, p. 63-73
Index terms:INFLATION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS
Language:eng
Abstract:Modern digital spectral analysis confirms that very noisy inflation and economic growth series share 9- and 18- year business and building cycle signals, but that inflation alone displays the additional ~28- and ~ 56-year rhythms of the long wave. The growth cycle that accounts for the greatest variance is one of ~ 6 years, probably associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations. Discussion of these results leads to clarification of major sources of confusion in the longwave literature, and to confirmation of the hypothesis that mode-locked endogenous rhythms may have their timing controlled by an exogenous pacemaker that links inflation and growth.
SCIMA record nr: 229461
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