search query: @indexterm DISCOUNT RATE / total: 136
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| Author: | Ayres, R. U. Axtell, R. |
| Title: | Foresight as a survival characteristic: When (if ever) does the long view pay ? |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1996 : MAR, VOL. 51:3, p. 209-235 |
| Index terms: | R&D COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Long range R&D and capital investment projects are normally evaluated by means of a procedure (cost-benefit analysis) that involves a choice of time preference functions. The time preference is typically assumed to be a behavioural fact of life by many economists and cost-benefit analysts. Discount rates in the range of 3% to 8% per annum in real terms are choosed. Variability in projected cost-benefit ratios resulting from this uncertainty is commonly dealt with ad hoc, e.g., by simply presenting results for several different discount rates and letting the decision-makers select among the rates. It is argued in the study the basic methodology of discounting beeing fundamentally flawed. It is also argued that the methodology can lead to significantly inferior social choices. A more general methodology is needed. |
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