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| Author: | Bell, W. Olick, J. K. |
| Title: | An epistemology for the futures field : problems and possibilities of prediction. |
| Journal: | Futures
1989 : APR, VOL. 21:2, p. 115-135 |
| Index terms: | FUTURE STUDIES PREDICTION THEORY PROBLEM SOLVING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A paradox of the futures field is that futurists strive to know what cannot be known, i.e. they make assertions, however tentative and contingent, about the future. They understand, of course, that the future has not yet materialized in the present and that, thus, nothing has happened that can be known. In attempting to deal with this paradox, futurists have disagreed about the use of predictions in futures research, some emphasizing consciousness raising and communication rather than the process of prediction itself, some denying that prediction has any role whatsoever. Against these views, it is claimed that prediction is a legitimate purpose of the futures field. |
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