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| Author: | Smith, D. G. C. |
| Title: | Combination of forecasts in electricity demand prediction. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1989 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 8:3, p. 349-356 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING PREDICTION THEORY ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Accurate demand prediction is of great importance in the electricity supply industry. Up to now, where online information about external conditions is unavailable, time series methods with historical data have been used for short-term prediction. These have drawbacks, both in their sensitivity to changing weather conditions and in their poor modelling of the daily/weekly business cycles. To overcome these problems a framework has been constructed whereby forecasts from different prediction methods and different forecasting origins can be selected and combined, solely on the basis of recent forecasting performance, with no a priori assumptions of demand behaviour. This added flexibility provides improvement in accuracy. |
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