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| Author: | Capstaff, J. Paudyal, K. Rees, W. |
| Title: | The accuracy and rationality of earnings forecasts by UK analysts |
| Journal: | Journal of Business Finance and Accounting
1995 : JAN, VOL. 22:1, p. 67-86 |
| Index terms: | EARNINGS RATIONALITY BIAS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the accuracy of UK analysts' forecasts corporate earnings and considers whether they are formed in a rational manner. The analysis is based on a large sample of individual forecasts of annual earnings for years ending in 1987 to 1991. The accuracy of the analysts' forecasts is initially assessed against a naive "no change" forecast of earnings. The results suggest that analysts generally provide more accurate forecasts than the naive model but errors are much larger when earnings decrease. |
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