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| Author: | Tyszka, T. Zielonka, P. |
| Title: | Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters |
| Journal: | Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets
2002 : VOL. 3:3, p. 152-160 |
| Index terms: | FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FINANCE FORECASTING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines what importance experts attach to various justifications of their forecasting failures. In particular, the authors focus on justifications appealing to the probabilistic nature of forecast events. Two groups of experts, financial analysts and weather forecasters, were asked to predict corresponding events (the value of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index and the average temperature of the next month). When accounting for inaccurate judgments, the authors find that weather forecasters attach more importance to probability than financial analysts. Although both groups revealed the overconfidence effect, it was significantly higher among financial analysts. These results are discussed from the perspective of learning from experience. |
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