search query: @indexterm FORECASTING / total: 1417
reference: 141 / 1417
« previous | next »
Author:Kulendran, N.
Witt, S. F.
Title:Leading indicator tourism forecasts
Journal:Tourism Management
2003 : OCT, VOL. 24:5, p. 503-510
Index terms:Tourism
Forecasting
Country comparisons
Language:eng
Abstract:Leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations, but only rarely in a tourism context. In this study leading indicator transfer function models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the United Kingdom to six major destinations. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate ARIMA and error correlation models. The time series models outperform the ECM for shortterm forecasting, but the ECM generates accurate long-term forecasts.
SCIMA record nr: 248382
add to basket
« previous | next »
SCIMA