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| Author: | Chu, F-L. |
| Title: | Analyzing and forecasting tourism demand with ARAR algorithm |
| Journal: | Tourism Management
2008 : DEC, VOL. 29:6, p. 1185-1196 |
| Index terms: | tourism demand forecasting |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This study explores the ARAR model and its usefulness as a forecast-generating mechanism for tourism demand. The study investigates nine major tourist destinations in the Asian-Pacific region. The analysis is conducted on monthly inflow of international visitors covering the period 1975-2006. The accuracy of the forecasts in most cases is robust to the forecasting horizon. The study is expanded by including quarterly series in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation. A comparison between forecasts generated by monthly and quarterly data reveals that the performance is approximately similar. Finally, the forecasts of ARAR are compared with those of seasonal ARIMA. Indeed, ARAR model can be considered as credible alternatives when modeling and forecasting tourism demand. |
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