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| Author: | Clark, J. Friesen, L. |
| Title: | Overconfidence in forecasts of own performance: An experimental study |
| Journal: | Economic Journal
2009 : JAN, VOL. 119:534, p. 229-251 |
| Index terms: | forecasting |
| Freeterms: | performance |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Systematic overconfidence (hereafter as: o-c.) by individuals as to their abilities and prospects could have important economic consequences. This study uses experiments to test for o-c. in people's forecasts of their absolute/relative performance in two unfamiliar tasks. Participants have incentives to forecast precisely, with opportunities for learning, feedback and revision. Forecasts are evaluated at individual and aggregate levels. There is found zero mean error or underconfidence (here as: u-c.) far more prevalent than o-c. U-c. is greatest in forecasts of absolute rather than relative performance and among those who use greater effort quantity or quality. |
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