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| Author: | Marchetti, C. |
| Title: | Infrastructures for movement. |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1987 : DEC, VOL. 32:4, p. 373-393 |
| Index terms: | AIR TRANSPORT ROAD TRANSPORT FORECASTING ENERGY FORECASTS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The aim is to elucidate problems in the deployment of transportation infrastructures and identify techniques that might generate consistent descriptions and forecasts. Most of the analysis undertaken uses a version of Darwinian ideas incorporated into Lotka's equations of competition between species in ecological niches as an analogy. At the described level, changes generally occur slowly, even when technological progress appears hectic, because social absorption is slow. The most encouraging discovery made in undertaking the analysis is the extreme dynamic stability of the transportation system and subsystems over time at all hierarchical levels. |
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