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| Author: | Chakrabarty, S. Chopin, M. C. Darrat, A. F. |
| Title: | Predicting future buyer behavior with consumers' confidence and sentiment indexes |
| Journal: | Marketing Letters
1998 : NOV, VOL. 9:4, p. 349-360 |
| Index terms: | Consumer behaviour Consumer expenditure Time series |
| Freeterms: | Consumer saving patterns Business activity Granger-causality |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Knowledge of consumer expectations and attitudes is an indispensable marketing tool. It may be usefull for predicting changes in consumer spending and saving patterns. However, most empirical research on the value of consumer confidence (or sentiment) indexes for forecasting future buyer behaviour has focused on the statistical correlation btw. the indexes and several measures of consumer spending and business activity. As according to Huth et al. (1994) a more appropriate approach is to focus on the direction of Granger-causality btw. the variables. Prior to testing for Granger-causality, in this paper it is investigated the stationarity properties of alternative measures of these variables and also a flexible lag structure is employed. The empirical results of the paper support the use of these indexes to forecast business activity but not consumer purchases or overall economic activity. |
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