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| Author: | Dror, Y. |
| Title: | Policy reasoning for forecasting. |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1989 : AUG, VOL. 36:1-2, p. 99-104 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING POLICY SCIENCE POLICY MAKING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The weaknesses in current methodologies to deal with complex systems is recognized and a set of twenty-two policy reasoning proposals are developed to raise forecasting and planning to a new level. An example is thinking-in-history as a principal mode in considering long-range processes. Advanced policy reasoning faces the problem of making decisions in human time directed at influencing social time. Another example is the need for fuzzy gambling in the face of pervasive uncertainty. The need to confront contradictions inherent in complexity is stressed. Progress in the proposed direction requires a quite novel breed of policy reasoning professionals. |
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