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| Author: | Everdingen, Y.M. van Aghina, W.B. Fok, D. |
| Title: | Forecasting cross-population innovation diffusion: A Bayesian approach |
| Journal: | International Journal of Research in Marketing
2005 : SEP, VOL. 22:3, p. 293-308 |
| Index terms: | international marketing forecasting Bayesian statistics estimation innovation diffusion models Internet mobile phones European Union |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a cross-population, adaptive diffusion (hereafter as: diff.) model for forecasting an innovation diff. at early stages of the diff. curve. In the model, diff. patterns across the populations depend on each other. In the paper, applied is the method to the diff. of both Internet access at home and mobile telephones among households in 15 countries of the European Union (EU). It is shown that forecasts from this study's model outperform those from independent diff. models for each country separately, as well as forecasts from the mixing-behaviour model by Putsis (et al.), 1997. |
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