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Author:Cho, I.-K.
Williams, N.
Sargent, T. J.
Title:Escaping Nash inflation
Journal:Review of Economic Studies
2002 : JAN, VOL. 69:1(238), p. 1-40
Index terms:Inflation
Inflation policy
Statistical methods
Language:eng
Abstract:An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a selfconfirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsay inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government.
SCIMA record nr: 239314
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