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| Author: | Dekay, M.L. Stone, E.R. Miller, S.A. |
| Title: | Leader-driven distortion of probability and payoff information affects choices between risky prospects |
| Journal: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2011 : OCT, VOL. 24:4, p. 394-411 |
| Index terms: | information preferences risk |
| Freeterms: | information distortion mediation reasoning choice monetary gambles modeling processes |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | In an experiment, participants made six choices involving pairs of hypothetical three-outcome monetary gambles. Initial preferences were manipulated by varying the order in which gamble features were presented. Multilevel regressions indicated that participants distorted their evaluations of precise probabilities and payoffs in the direction of their emerging preferences and that they used their biased evaluations to update those preferences. As expected, information distortion mediated the effect of initial preferences on final choices and final preference strength. In a follow-up experiment, a standard measure of information distortion was compared to a more personalized measure. The mean-based measure is found to be superiour for the probability and payoff information in question. Other findings in Experiment 2 confirmed the Experiment 1 results. In both studies, the distortion of quantitative inputs in a simple task emphasizes the non-normative circularity of the choice process. |
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