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Author: | Vakratsas, D. Kolsarici, C. |
Title: | A dual-market diffusion model for a new prescription pharmaceutical |
Journal: | International Journal of Research in Marketing
2008 : DEC, VOL. 25:4, p. 282-293 |
Index terms: | health economics pharmaceutical industry products markets diffusion models |
Language: | eng |
Abstract: | Prescription pharmaceuticals (hereafter as: pre-pctls.) are an increasingly important component of patient care and a critical factor for health economics. Based on clinical management and pharmacoepidemilogical concepts considering the severity of health problems, and the medical practice of watchful waiting, proposed is a dual-market model for the diffusion of new pre-pctls. This model distinguishes btw. an "early" adoption market involving patients with severe health problems (for whom the demand is accumulated prior to the pctls.'s launch), and a "late" market corresponding to prescriptions (as: pres.) for patients with mild problems developed after and potentially triggered by the product's launch. The model is applied to monthly data on new pres. and on corresponding marketing activities for a new pres. category, representing the first available oral treatment. The results suggest that the proposed model has good parameter face and forecasting validity. |
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