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| Author: | Durand, R. |
| Title: | Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: the roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention |
| Journal: | Strategic Management Journal
2003 : SEP, VOL. 24:9, p. 821-838 |
| Index terms: | Forecasting Organizational control Bias Marketing information |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Recent reaearch shows that forecasting ability is an organizational distictive competence. In this study the author proposes and tests a model accounting for interfirm differences in forecasting ability. After controlling for reciprocal effects, the author finds that two principal firm-level factors (i.e. organizational illusion of control and organizational attention) influence both bias and magnitude of errors in estimates. High organizational illusion of control increases positive forecast bias. Higher relative investments in market information appear to reduce positive forecast bias and magnitude of errors. Finally, higher relative investments in employee capability increase both negative forecast bias and, unexpectedly, magnitude of errors for the majority of observed cases. |
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