search query: @author Ittig, P. T. / total: 2
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| Author: | Ittig, P. T. |
| Title: | A seasonal index for business |
| Journal: | Decision Sciences
1997 : SPRING, VOL. 28:2, p. 335-355 |
| Index terms: | SEASONAL FLUCTUATION BUSINESS FORECASTING DATA ANALYSIS BUSINESS HISTORY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | This article shows that the conventional method for estimating a seasonal index for business forecasting contains a systematic error in the presence of a trend. The error tends to be worse if the trend is large or nonlinear and if the seasonal effect is large. The article shows that the error is transmitted through to forecasts whether the seasonal index is used to deseasonalize the data or is used to initialize Winter's method of exponential smoothing. Better forecasts are possible for little additional cost in some cases by improving the estimate of the seasonal effect. Improvements could produce significant savings in some applications such as by permitting a reduction in safety stocks and average inventory levels. |
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