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| Author: | Brandstätter, E. Kühberger, A. Schneider, F. |
| Title: | A cognitive-emotional account of the shape of the probability weighting function |
| Journal: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2002 : APR, VOL. 15:2, p. 79-100 |
| Index terms: | Probability Psychology Models |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Research has shown a tendency of decision makers to overweight small probabilities and to underweight moderate and large probabilities. In standard treatments this is graphically modeled by an inverse S-shaped probability weighting function. This paper suggests that emotions play significant role in the shaping of the probability weighting function. Particularly the weighting function is proposed to be some function of objective probability, expected elation, and expected disappointment. Three experiments investigate these hypotheses. Experiments 1 and 2 show that a convex function relates probability to surprise. Experiment 3 elicits choice data and further supports the proposed hypotheses. The model adds to the understanding of the cognitive and emotional processes underlying the shape of the probability weighting function. |
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