search query: @author Clive Simmonds, W. H. / total: 2
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| Author: | Clive Simmonds, W. H. |
| Title: | Gaining a sense of direction in futures work. |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1989 : AUG, VOL. 36:1-2, p. 61-67 |
| Index terms: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A need is seen to use a full-cycle approach in forecasting as a way to avoid the unwarranted ceteris paribus assumption, i.e. everything but the forecast item remaining the same. A better sense of the direction of developments is obtained by pursuing each element back to its starting point. By weighting the factors so developed over the longer term, and by combining such forecasts, a sense of the longer-term, as well as the shorter-term, aspects can be realized. In this way the danger of having little direction and no long-term objectives can be avoided. |
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