search query: @author Andreassen, P. B. / total: 2
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| Author: | Andreassen, P. B. Kraus, S. J. |
| Title: | Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change. (!Extrapolation forecasting) |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1990 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 9:4, p. 347-372 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TIME SERIES |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A model of judgemental extrapolation based on exponential smoothing is proposed, in which the setting of the trend parameter is hypothesized to depend upon the relative salience of the successive changes. The salience hypothesis was first tested with exponential series by the use of framing manipulation. Focusing the subjects' attention on the changes led to more accurate forecasts. In two investment simulation studies, the salience hypothesis was further examined by varying the statistical properties of the price changes. Conditions that may influence judgemental forecasting processes are discussed. |
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