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| Author: | Anders, U. Sxczesny, A. |
| Title: | Prognose von Insolvenzwahrscheinlichkeiten mit Hilfe logistischer neuronaler Netzwerke |
| Journal: | Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung
1998 : VOL. 50:10, p. 892-915 |
| Index terms: | COMPANY FAILURES BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING REGRESSION ANALYSIS NEURAL NETWORKS MODELS |
| Language: | ger |
| Abstract: | In this article we forecast the probability of small and medium sized companies to go bankrupt. Although such compa- nies face a particular high insolvency risk, very little research has been done in this area. The difficulty of fore- casting the insolvency risk of small and medium sized compa- nies mainly consists of a lack of balance sheet data so that one has to rely on qualitative information as well. We show that despite of that constraint good forecasts of insolvency risk are possible. The methods used are logistic regression and neural networks. In order to select appropriate models we apply statistical inference techniques. For logistic regression this is a standard. However, for neural networks this is new. By help of statistical inference techniques we create parsimonious models and avoid overfitting of the data. |
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