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| Author: | Goldfarb, D. L. Huss, W. R. |
| Title: | Building scenarios for an electric utility. |
| Journal: | Long Range Planning
1988 : APR, VOL. 21:2, p. 78-85 |
| Index terms: | SCENARIOS FORECASTING ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY USA |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The scenario analysis method of the Georgia Power company in the US is discussed. The firm needs accurate forecasting in order to justify major investments and to compete in the context of increasing deregulation. Advantages of the method are highlighted. The forecasting topic was defined and structured. Probabilities were determined. A cross-impact matrix was completed. Crucial scenarios were selected and interpreted. Forecasts were summarized. The three scenarios selected were connected to the rate of real US GNP growth. Benefits of the process are outlined. The role of management involvement is examined. Recommendations are outlined for the future development of the method. |
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