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| Author: | Engle, R. F. Brown, S. J. Stern, G. |
| Title: | A comparison of adaptive structural forecasting methods for electricity sales. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 7:3, p. 149-172 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY SALES FORECASTING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | A forecasting comparison between a variety of new statistical methodologies is described. Each method discussed is used to forecast monthly electricity sales by state up to 3 years in the future. The accuracy of different methods and models are assessed by comparing the mean squared forecast error of the out-of-sample predictions for various horizons and assumptions about knowledge of the independent variable. Models are considered with varying degrees of complexity. Attention is given to the model selection problem and a variety of diagnostic tests. Selection criteria are employed in the analysis. Results from several time series methods are also presented. |
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