search query: @indexterm NUCLEAR POLLUTION / total: 22
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| Author: | Chow, T. Oliver, R. M. |
| Title: | Predicting nuclear incidents. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : JAN-MAR, VOL. 7:1, p. 49-61 |
| Index terms: | NUCLEAR POLLUTION PREDICTION THEORY ACCIDENTS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The problem of predicting incidents of like severity in nuclear power plants is discussed. Earlier work is reviewed. Attention is focused on nuclear core-melts which can lead to disastrous releases of radioactivity. An attempt is made to predict observable quantities such as the time to the next incident and the number of incidents in a fixed future period. Information sources are examined. The study concludes with estimates of the expected time to the first core-melt, the median and quantiles of time to the next partial core-melt and the probability that at least one severe incident will occur in the next decade. Operating experiences are examined, dangerous problems are highlighted. |
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