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| Author: | |
| Title: | UK Assessment: UK recessions - anatomy, causes and risks |
| Journal: | Economic Outlook
2002 : WINTER, VOL. 26:2, p. 5-15 |
| Index terms: | UNITED KINGDOM ECONOMICS TRENDS |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The terrorist atrocities in the U.S. on 11 September have changed the whole shape of the economic cycle in the UK. With consumer and business confidence globally affected by the events of 11 September, the authors' forecast now shows GDP growth falling from 2,2% in 2001 to just under 2% in 2002-its lowest since 1992. And the authors would now put the probability of an outright recession this year at no more than 10%. The authors conclude that there are increasing imbalances in the UK now that could cause a severe downturn. But those imbalances are not as pronounced as ahead of the last recession. And with inflation low and the public finances sound, the authorities would be able to relax policy further if necessary to mitigate recessionary forces. |
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