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| Author: | Revankar, N. S. |
| Title: | On the problem of forecasting prior to "price" control and decontrol |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1992 : JAN, VOL. 11:1, p.1-15 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND INFORMATION PRICES RATE OF RETURN CONTROL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | The forecasting problem is considered in the context of a demand or supply equation, when the "price" variable (for example wage rate, airfare, rate of return of capital etc.) is controlled (exogenous) in the forecast period - Case A; or vice versa - Case B. In either case, at least some parameters need to shift in value from the sample to the forecast period, and the forecasts in general need to use prior information on the forecast period values of such parameters. Case A is less demanding than Case B in terms of prior information needs. The author draws attention to the relevance of the distinction between a conditional forecast and a controlled forecast in Case B. |
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