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| Author: | Remus, W. E. |
| Title: | Criterion-referenced judgemental forecasting models |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1991 : JUL, VOL. 10:4, p. 415-423 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES MATHEMATICAL MODELS MICROECONOMICS ECONOMIC THEORY DECISION MAKING DECISION THEORY |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Human judgements are made usually with reference to some criteria such as cost or profit. When making a judgement model for such a decision, the ideal is to yield near-optimum results in terms of the criteria. The discussion of this model is started by justifying concave criteria for decisions; the arguments are based on microeconomic theory. The intent is to explore that possibility and give guidance for selecting a judgemental forecasting model based on the decision maker's criterion. Concave criteria lead to a mathematical derivation which allows to contrast several models and criteria for human judgement. This guidance departs from using only R-squared in model selection. |
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