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| Author: | Brauers, J. Weber, M. |
| Title: | A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : JAN-MAR, VOL. 7:1, p. 31-47 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES STRATEGIC PLANNING |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Scenario analysis is presented as a qualitative forecasting technique useful for strategic planning. Traditional methods of strategic forecasting are discussed. The theoretical background of the topic is highlighted, literature is reviewed. Two types of scenarios are identified and described. Requirements of scenarios in the planning process are summarized. Basic stages of the analysis are listed. The role of cross-impact analysis is examined. A new method is developed which especially fits the needs of strategic planning. This method is divided into three stages: determination of compatible scenarios, determination of scenario probabilities, and determination of main scenarios. |
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