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| Author: | Meade, N. |
| Title: | Forecasting with growth curves : the effect of error structure. |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : OCT-DEC, VOL. 7:4, p. 235-244 |
| Index terms: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES POPULATION |
| Language: | eng |
| Abstract: | Logistic curves are useful for forecasting the growth of markets, consumption, the increase of human populations. The effect of the error structure assumption on the forecasting accuracy is investigated. A local logistic model is developed with an additive error term, the variance of which can be made a function of the level of the variable being modelled and its distance from the saturation. The results of empirical studies concerning the adoption of consumer durables and growth of human populations are described and discussed. Some data sets may be inconsistent with the binomial model of error structure. |
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